GRAHAM RICHARDSON

PM should go for party's sake

• BY:GRAHAM RICHARDSON 
• From:The Australian 
• February 22, 2013 12:00AM 
• 27 comments

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Illustration: Eric Lobbecke Source: The Australian

LOVE her or hate her, you would have to feel some sympathy for Julia Gillard. Virtually every policy she announces is bucketed and rejected by all and sundry.

Every press conference is dominated by questions about her leadership. Every poll result is another knife through her heart. The political judgments the Prime Minister makes are mostly rubbished by friend and foe alike. Good news is hard to find.

How she must dread the first few moments of the morning as she begins to focus. I can hear her barking at the first bloke the order not to turn on the radio or the television. No news is the best news she can get.

She knows Newspoll is coming early next week. It is a publication she dreads because she knows every member of her caucus is waiting for it. If the next Newspoll confirms the dreadful numbers produced by Nielsen, she knows her time in the top job may well be cruelly shortened - no pun intended! She has not lost the numbers to Kevin Rudd yet but the number of doubtfuls is growing by the minute.

The more her trusted cabinet ministers ring caucus members and senior party officials to assure them that there is no movement in caucus, and that all is well, the more the air of panic pervades the small world that is the caucus.

Politics is a brutal game and it is not for the faint-hearted. Gillard is as tough as they come, as tough as I have ever seen. That toughness is now being sorely tested and the turmoil in her head would be something to behold.

Looking to her cabinet for rock solid support would be a forlorn exercise. Ever since the debacle of the debate over whether or not to support Palestinians having observer status at UN, she has not been able to stop looking over her shoulder. Only two cabinet members were with her. One by one the rest told her of their dismay or even disgust at the stance she was taking.

Had she not backed off within seconds of the bells tolling for the midnight hour she would not have survived that December day.

Since then the announcement of the world's longest election campaign didn't help her cause. Then last week out of a clear blue sky she announces a billion dollar program to make Australian companies "consider" using Australian made goods. Yes, that's right, consider. No compulsion, just lots of money to make business think about it. Since then a huge question mark has arisen over the method of funding for this cool billion.

The Greens have walked out on her as well. Christine Milne is showing all the signs of this becoming one of those infamously vicious divorces. Who knows what the Greens will choose to endorse when legislation is brought forward to the Senate. Already the aforementioned billion dollar program is under threat and a hostile Senate is the last thing a desperate PM trying to demonstrate stability really needs. It is hard to imagine the government was getting worse but that now appears to be a certainty.

None of the options available to the PM for her immediate future is particularly appealing to either her or for the party. Despite the stoic defiance that she exudes, somewhere in the darkest recess of her mind reality must have a place. There must be times when she considers just what will happen to the Labor Party if she clings to the leadership and the polls are proved to be right.

A loss of between of between 30 and 40 seats is on the cards, a slaughter of epic proportions. It would take Labor a decade to recover from that and given how much worse the situation is in NSW and Queensland, large chunks of the talent pool would go as well. The next generation of political Labor leaders, with the exception of Bill Shorten, would all be gone.

You would be entitled to wonder just how much the Labor Party can take. If a federal election produced a result anything like the NSW and Queensland state massacres morale would be at rock bottom, as would membership. Given that a budget must be prepared by May which must deliver $15 billion of cuts just to allow for the NDIS and the Gonski reforms, the political pain would be immense. There is a real chance that there won't be much left of the modern Labor Party at the end of her reign.

She could of course run up a white flag, give Kevin a big hug and resign for the good of the party. Given her demeanour, character and reputation I just can't see that happening. She could ditch the NDIS and Gonski legacy she has been determined to leave behind as a permanent reminder of her prime ministership. That would at least give Wayne Swan some chance of preparing a budget that won't destroy a party he has served all his working life.

Most likely though, she will hang on and try to tough it out. With all those who hate Rudd clustered around her in praetorian guard formation, a confused, conflicted caucus might acquiesce to her survival. Numbers have been hard to come by for the Rudd team.

This would mean that the legacy Gillard leaves behind would be the near destruction of the modern Labor Party. That is how bad I believe Labor's position has become. Some of the PM's backers are among my closest friends and this column may well strain those relationships. It would be worth the price to see Labor back in the game, being taken seriously, and a force for good in Australian politics.

Graham Richardson hosts Richo on Sky News at 8pm on Wednesdays.

COMMENTS ON THIS STORY

• Jennyf of Forest Lake Posted at 12:18 AM Today

  Well, it all started with Rudd, so let's hope it doesn't end with him too. The Labor party wrongly selected Rudd as leader and the price is now being paid.

  Comment 1 of 27
• Troy of Perth Posted at 12:24 AM Today

  Graham,things happen for a reason. There are consequences. Labor must be held to account for it's failures, misguided policies and incompetence. In the private sector, second chances are not given, yet labor was given one at the last election. If "modern labor" is all but wiped out, then it is natural selection at work. The union movement/labor party is no longer relevent to this country.Graham, it's time to stop living in the past.

  Comment 2 of 27
• Kath of Perth Posted at 12:30 AM Today

  Gillard may well have a reputation for being tough, but at what point does "tough" become "pig headed"? What does it take for Gillard to develop a sense of reality and to understand this toughness is not in anyone's best interest. Toughness is not a positive attribute unless it is accompanied by a sense of awareness of the context.

  Comment 3 of 27
• Terry Adelaide Posted at 12:31 AM Today

  Richo you're right about her legacy but it's not all her fault Labor is decadent. A whole bunch of lazy people went with her for the free ride into power. They all did it for themselves not for Australia. Feel for Julia Gillard. Why?

  Comment 4 of 27
• JR of SE Qld. Posted at 12:41 AM Today

  Richo, your beloved ALP is so far from being "taken seriously" it is a joke. As you rightly say, these ridiculous announcables with no enforceability but billion dollar price tags do nothing but damage the ALP's credibility further. It will take a lot more than a return to Rudd for the ALP to avoid electoral oblivion. Rather than being a "force for good" that current ALP will compromise any principle, reverse any stance & abandon any promise in order to cling to power a little bit longer. They are just not good enough to occupy the treasury benches...

  Comment 5 of 27
• James of Sydney Posted at 12:45 AM Today

  Gillard is only the front face of Labor. People find it hard to remember now, but Rudd was worse. Swan still is. Shorten is much more smooth but just as archaic in his thinking. Gillard is not the disease, the whole party is. In the next few years history will bury Labor as surely as it did the Protectionists, and there is no potential leader today who could make any difference to that.

  Comment 6 of 27
• James of Perth Posted at 1:04 AM Today

  Hi Richo, Good analysis and I do share some admiration for JG's strength of resolve, if not her ideas of what is best for Australia. The Greens can betray her any time to force an election and will if it suits them. The best bet for both the PM and the nation is to call an election now. It is hard for her to be worse off, and the nation would respond very positively.

  Comment 7 of 27
• Michael of Perth Posted at 1:22 AM Today

  Where is Oakeshott? Your country needs you to save it from this mess but you have gone missing! Gutless self interest rules.

  Comment 8 of 27
• Roboduck of WA Posted at 1:39 AM Today

  Sorry Richo, but she made this rod for her and labor's back. She has been so damn cocky railing on in the Parliament with her front bench knocking and jeering the Opposition whilst the Galahs behind her nod and yell shame shame, well M/s O'Neill does continually. She deserves to have no legacy, and just remember we did not elect her Government the Independents and Greens did. We the punters do not have the same sympathy for her demise. But we want to see it out to the end and if those Labor Independents had the guts they would make it much sooner for all our sakes.

  Comment 9 of 27
• Simonzee of Perth WA Posted at 1:39 AM Today

  Maybe Gillard can do Yoga early every morning to channel the real Julia. I keep hearing Labor speak highly of her so this must be the AWU Julia. Julia cannot step aside because who would the AWU turn to then. Who will they going to build their Obama like campaign around then? For that to work you need to have a comeback. Perhaos Rudd would fit because clearly Labor and the AWU have not stopped to consider the celebrity factor that Julia does not have and neither celebrities to draw upon for support.She does not have the support of a left wing media apart from the ABC and she doesn't have Rudd coming in like Bill Clinton which was more about getting Hillary into office next time round rather than an act of party loyalty. I'm sure she cannot expect Rudd supporters rallying to the call of the AWU's battle plan after being they were all called a small appendage. Sadly Labor are caught between a rock and a hard place with internal dissention, disorientation and division. Perhaps Emerson can give us another rendition of Horror Movie right there on my T.V because as I have said before Gillard is doing for Labor what Natasha Dot Despoya did for the Democrats.

  Comment 10 of 27
• M. Mouse of Perth Posted at 1:51 AM Today

  "The near destruction of the modern Labor Party" Hurray! It's high time the rotting stinking dinosaur carcass that is the ALP was buried for good so we can have our country back and never have to fear that it will ever again rear it's ugly head. Looking forward to taking my business out of mothballs, if I can last until September...just go now, all of you, for goodness sake so we can start fixing this mess.

  Comment 11 of 27
• John Godden of Neerim South Posted at 1:51 AM Today

  Even if Julia Gillard quit which doesn't seem to be in her DNA, Wayne Swan would seek to guarantee K Rudd would not return to exact retribution on him, the nastiest detractor of the former PM. Swan will use whatever ammunition he has kept in reserve to destroy Rudd's chances, even at the prospect of causing the ruination of a Labor in the ensuing bloodbath. Bill Shorten may well inherit the leadership role but it will be a poisoned chalice. Greens leader Christine Milne will surely seek to take advantage of the ensuing carnage reaped upon Labor at the Polls by projecting her party as being focussed, well led and reliable to it's policy agenda. Her aim being to usurp the mantle of alternative government upon the ashes of a decimated Labor. She will very likely act sooner rather than later to create a catalyst, an event in parliament to precipitate a vote of no confidence in the government and a poll before Aug 12th. Any later would expose her party to Tony Abbott's promise to trigger a double dissolution to facilitate his promise to undo the carbon and mining taxes. Before Aug 12th and Abbott cannot bring on a half senate election for 1 year.

  Comment 12 of 27
• Peter Posted at 2:18 AM Today

  Julia Gillard has reached the same position as John Howard in his last year when Australians were not listening to him.Howard should have stepped down and made a smooth transition to Costello and now Julia Gillard should step down and allow a smooth transition to an alternative leader of the Labor party who Australians will at least listen to.It is vital in any democracy that political leaders know when the people have stopped listening to them and allow an alternative leader to more clearly articulate their partys policies so that voters can vote on a real competition of policies.

  Comment 13 of 27
• Sam Ordinary Australian of Hope Valley SA Posted at 2:33 AM Today

  Too bad , so sad, Graham! They brought it all upon themselves. Your party will be destroyed when the election takes place, because the electorate requires integrity borne from a new generational group of labor men and women, to come into the parliament.

  Comment 14 of 27
• LoWahQ of Perth Posted at 2:37 AM Today

  Well, if JG brings the ALP to the historic low, she then can proclaim she should be credited for every future improvement! Thanks to her that ALP will be able to start with a generation of new leaders and the only way will be up from then on!

  Comment 15 of 27
• Marty of Brisbane Posted at 2:42 AM Today

  Feel sorry for her? Really? I don't. Not at all. As the Proverbs say, "they shall eat the fruit of their way, and have their fill of their own devices." - she had it coming from day 1.

  Comment 16 of 27
• Aghast of Glenorchy Posted at 2:47 AM Today

  All this and Tony Abbott is rendered Gaff free.He need not say a word.He is being gifted the lodge in a way that leaves him untested.He does not even have to mumble and stumble his way to the lodge.Kevin Rudd is handing it to him.

  Comment 17 of 27
• BoatYard Annie of Canberra Posted at 2:52 AM Today

  Richo - I haven't voted Labor since YOU were in parliament!!! And this column fair makes me nostalgic for those days. You may have been a "whatever it takes" kinda guy, but you were never a BS artist. You told it like it was (and is). I can't wait for your coverage on election night to see the back end of this PM and her misbegotten lot.

  Comment 18 of 27
• Rasa of Gold Coast Posted at 4:40 AM Today

  "Then last week out of a clear blue sky she announces a billion dollar program to make Australian companies "consider" using Australian made goods." The announcement of this policy was supposed to coincide with the Newspoll scheduled for Monday. Newspoll put the poll back a week so it coincides better with next sitting of parliament and the WA election. The $1 Billion was only meant as a distraction for 48 - 72 Hours. McTernan will have to go through is Policy Pile to find one for this Sunday.

  Comment 19 of 27
• Tellurian Posted at 5:01 AM Today

  Shorten is not that well liked either. The public are sick of Union leaders becoming politicians. That's why Rudd was so successful. The next Labor PM may not be born yet; they are so dysfunctional.

  Comment 20 of 27
• Dexter of Melbourne Posted at 5:21 AM Today

  Good summary as usual. Pity that Howes and the rest just won't see the reality of the situation. Voters in the streets see it - why don't the intelligent members of govmnt see it? Maybe they will read this piece and jolt awake.

  Comment 21 of 27
• AE Posted at 5:27 AM Today

  Gonski, Schmonski. All these you-beaut multi-billion dollar programmes they keep coming up with. Our society survived for a long time without them, we will get by without them. I feel I "deserve" a 19-bedroom mansion with 12 bathrooms, but alas, there's the small matter of paying for it. So we do without what we can't afford, and do so until you can afford it. True for private citizens, should also be true for government.

  Comment 22 of 27
• Monty of Brisbane Posted at 5:33 AM Today

  Denial is the word of the day. As for sympathy, you must be kidding me. Do you truly believe we should feel that way, Richo? Is it because she is a woman? Look, she breached an election promise. She has also failed on every policy front. She's detested because she is a failure and not trustworthy. The final point: it is time you Labor hardliners analyse the situation and fix it. If you think Paul Howes is helping Labor's cause with his "it is war manifesto", think again.

  Comment 23 of 27
• Barry Wakelin of Kimba Posted at 5:35 AM Today

  What do you reckon old Hawkey would say Richo if he wanted to be helpful? -I think you've nailed it - I can't see a future for Labor until you face the conflict of interest which the born to rule union royalty face on seperation of powers from government - call it what you will - it must be dealt with transparently and permanently. It does not mean unions cannot have a valuable role but they cannot sit at the Cabinet table and continue to dictate who the Prime Minister must be as they have in the case of Howard, Rudd and Gillard and for much of the last 100 years. I guess it is habit forming to enjoy this special relationship but no other organisation in Australia to the same degree operate to a different standard within the law of the land with such an obvious conflict of interest to the detriment and intimidation of the majority of other Australians.

  Comment 24 of 27
• sillyoldbugger of bayside Posted at 5:50 AM Today

  Sympathy? You've got to be joking. Gillard is the most incompetent mendacious self-serving PM we have ever had. She has taken the stewardship of "other people's money" to new heights (lows). In tandem with Swanny, she has setup disincentives for business which will never be fully unwound. I hope the first bloke burns her toast.

  Comment 25 of 27
• Maria of Sydney Posted at 5:52 AM Today

  I still cannot believe that there was not another person in the whole of that miserable labor party with at least a little more intelligence than Gillard. If she is the most intelligent person they have, well, they really, truly deserve to be wiped off the face of the planet permanently and wait for some intelligent person to come along in future decades. Gillard is truly pathetic.

  Comment 26 of 27
• Salvatore Digiovanni Posted at 5:58 AM Today

  Graham to be fair the prime minster has had major issues outside her control. We all know N.S.W will a disaster for labor due to the state issue about mining leases and I doubt very much if labor will have any federal members but history will prove that she is a prime minster with a can do attitude and history will judge her as a prime minster with the labor tradition of conviction. Her policy outcomes to date have been outstanding: best preforming economy in the world, vision for australian economy with four pillar plan 1. price on carbon 2. the N.b.n 3. the largest investment in both education and infrastructure spending 5. Superannuation from 9%to 12% just to name a few. So on balance she will be remembered and respected as a true labor champion who like the ministry which you were involved in both Hawke and Keating government who modernised our country in 20th century and Gillard has given us a change in 21st century.