Friday, 15 February 2013

Little to show but he won't go: N Sava 14/2

Little to show but he won't go



Eric Lobbecke

Illustration: Eric Lobbecke Source: The Australian


IF the Pope can resign for the good of his church, it should be possible for Wayne Swan to resign for the good of his government. Except he won't, even though he was musing about it last year, and Julia Gillard won't sack him even if she wanted to and even if he does deserve it.
It would spell the end for both of them, so for better or for worse, and it is always possible to get worse, they are bound together. Next to Gillard, Swan is the government's weakest spot; however, his removal would expose the Prime Minister's flank at a most dangerous time.
Previously, sound relationships between a respected prime minister and competent treasurer formed the bedrock on which the success of the government was built: think Bob Hawke and Paul Keating, or John Howard and Peter Costello.
When that relationship works it is a beautiful thing. When it stops working it's disastrous.
What is unusual in this government is that the relationship between the Prime Minister and Treasurer is stronger than ever and instead of making the government stronger, it is helping to kill it. The combination is lethal.
As one caucus member put it: "If this government has a problem around communicating, and it does, and if this government has a problem around the selling of an economic message, and it does, then both Gillard and Swan have to accept responsibility for that. They are the two central salespeople of the government."
Swan's weakness especially exposes a potential direct line of attack for the Ruddites. Reinstating Kevin Rudd would not only remove the problem of Gillard, it would remove Swan. Rudd could make Greg Combet treasurer. Or Bill Shorten or Chris Bowen. Anybody but Swan.
Despite receiving the world's best treasurer gong, Swan has been unable to win popularity or respect at home. His lacklustre performance has long been a subject of discussion in the business community and inside Labor.
Stories abound about his extreme sensitivity to real or perceived slights. A couple of years ago one business leader delivered an innocuous speech setting out areas for reform including tax, skills, infrastructure and regulation.
This newspaper led with the story, saying the speech reflected concerns in the business community about the pace of reform. That morning, a senior member of Swan's staff rang the businessman's offsider to inform him: "I had to peel the Treasurer off the roof after he read The Australian."
Often the Treasurer makes his precious-petal phone calls himself and, combined with his deeply personal attacks on individuals, they have muffled public criticism.
Public reticence gives way to private venting. They rip into him for deficiencies in style and substance. Like the cricketer who can't bat and can't bowl, he seems unable to build fiscal capital or market credibility.
Swan is ultimately responsible for two serious policy failures, either one of which should have secured his demise, yet he will probably survive both.
Whether or not the budget should be in surplus is debatable. Nevertheless, Swan promised until he was black and blue that it would be, so essential was it to the good health of families and the economy.
He even claimed it had already happened, writing an outright porky to his constituents that he had delivered a surplus when he knew he hadn't and probably never would.
Similarly the mining tax. He has known for months it would fall short of projections. The two measures described as flaws or loopholes that limit revenue - the depreciation provisions and reimbursement of increased state royalties - are no such thing. They are deliberate design elements agreed to in great haste to resolve a political problem.
In its short life, the mining tax has had five separate formulations, six if you count the original version in the Henry tax review. The forecasts have changed with each iteration, and before, during and after some iterations, culminating in the last mid-year fiscal and economic outlook, which predicted it would raise $2 billion - $10bn less than the first estimate for the super profits tax. So far it has delivered more than $126 million.
Swan expected people to believe a volatile tax could fund recurrent spending of $15bn, that he could rustle up another $15bn to pay for Gonski and the National Disability Insurance Scheme and provide a surplus.
He got away with it for a while. No longer.
There was a one-word response from the industry for what would happen if Swan tried to renegotiate the agreement: war.
The miners are not intimidated by the government and attempts to change even a single comma will be met with extreme force.
The problem for this government is that it pays far too much attention to the politics and not enough to the economics. It seems to think normal rules don't apply and it can reverse the adage that good economics is good politics.
The upshot is that unless the opposition makes a serious stuff-up in its costings, it will be difficult for Swan to run attacks on the assumptions underlying its calculations and its estimates of likely tax revenues, given he, with the full resources of Treasury and Finance, can't get his own numbers right.
The mining tax has caused so much grief, especially for Rudd, who never understood why he got dumped and Swan was promoted, and who delighted in drawing attention in his Sky interview to the fact the problem was created by Gillard and Swan, and it was up to them to fix it.
All very pointed and said with a strategically placed photo of himself with Pope Benedict in the background. You gotta love that kind of attention to detail.
Rudd's comments were not, according to Ruddites, part of a premeditated plan to ramp up leadership speculation. Rudd has only to sneeze to do that. It was simply an opportunity for payback too good to pass up. The Ruddites remain uncertain if anything will happen - maybe it will, maybe it won't - , depending on what the next few batches of polls show.

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COMMENTS ON THIS STORY

  • best negotiator of perth Posted at 1:10 AM February 14, 2013
    With Gillard and Swan running the government it's a miracle that Australia has not gone down further. The scarey thing is this pair still got another 7 months to wreck the country. Gillard is in complete delusion, blaming everyone else for the mining tax failure and they were the one who negotiated with the mining companies. From 12 billions to 126 millions, What a deal she's got!!
    Comment 1 of 79
  • Terry Adelaide Posted at 1:36 AM February 14, 2013
    Comparing this politician with the Pope and expecting the same outcome isn't likely to bring the government salvation. The Pope serves God and humanity while Wayne serves Julia and himself.
    Comment 2 of 79
  • Stav of Adelaide Posted at 1:44 AM February 14, 2013
    By definition the mining tax based on profits will not provide a fixed revenue stream, by its design any revenue will be small, as the concessions given the miners do not favour the taxpayer. By linking the tax with numerous large, recurrent expenses (company tax cuts, super rate increases, Gonski, NDIS) the government has accentuated these deficiencies in the tax. The government seems loathe to change the tax and its revenue, thus the only way it can work is to change the expenditure side of the equation. Having the abovementioned schemes as part of recurrent expenditure and making some other schemes be directly funded by the mining tax would achieve this. Might I suggest they start with parliamentary pensions and expenses of current parliamentarians (perhaps adding senior treasury officials). Thus,when the mining tax makes a fraction of the amount claimed in the forward estimates, the benefits of those groups show a commensurate decrease. It may inject a dose of the real world to some in Canberra and even some accountability in decision making.
    Comment 3 of 79
  • geoffm of perth Posted at 1:44 AM February 14, 2013
    I really do think it is time for windsor and Oakshott to call an end to this charade and pull support for this rabble. It is high time the national interest was respected for a change instead of petty personal politics. i read this week Oakshott feels duped by this mob, well bless my sole Rob join the cue behind Wilkie and poker machine reform and the rest of the country and there will be no carbon tax. How long and how many times do you have to be made to look a fool before you act?
    Comment 4 of 79
  • The World's Greatest Pretender! of FNQ Posted at 3:54 AM February 14, 2013
    Wayne Swan should change his music taste from Bruce Springsteen to the Platter because although he is close to 'the Boss' his claims to have already delivered a surplus suggest that he is 'the Great Pretender'. If he wasn't so consumed by spin he would jump rather than being pushed at the next election.
    Comment 5 of 79
  • Ian Coastie of Gold Coast Posted at 4:06 AM February 14, 2013
    How dare having to run the country successfully get in the way of Gillard and Swans tactics for political survival. As for those mean miners and Rudd reinforces well they should cease and desist. After all Gillard and Swan are quite capable of shooting themselves in the foot without the help of others.
    Comment 6 of 79
  • Denis Brown of Brisbane Posted at 5:24 AM February 14, 2013
    Nikki it is your credibilty that is in tatters, your pro Abbott rantings are a tired and failed outburst that this paper keeps on printing, meanwhile Swan is getting on with the job. If you were at all interested in fact you would see that yesterdays advert blitz by the minerals and mining councils breached the agreement they had on the MRRT, so it's now gloves off an I hope they hit the industry hard because this time the majority of Australian's support the super profits tax on miners.
    Comment 7 of 79
  • Salvatore Digiovanni Posted at 6:11 AM February 14, 2013
    Niki fair dinkum give me a break. Swan has been an outstanding treasurer the results are there to see. The best preforming economy in the world with interest rates at 3%, inflation at just over 2% kept the country out of recession during the G.F.C the list is endless compare his results against Costello on facts who in 11 years saw only two major policy incentives a second rate G.S.T and an unworkable Work choices during a world economy that was booming.
    Comment 8 of 79
  • The Blackeye Rose Posted at 6:20 AM February 14, 2013
    Again a marvellous piece of journalism. Nikki, one more point, Gillard and Swan were too busy focussing all their attention on Abbott, they played the man. Next they allowed their strategist, McTernan, to dictate the sleaze word of the day, such as misogynist, and yesterday was a classic, "jacking up". I did not feel at all sorry for Gillard and Swan's pathetic excuses for the failure to achieve the budget or to reach their target of two billion dollars from the mining tax while constantly lecturing the Opposition on how to budget, create jobs, and how they saved us all from the GFC.
    Comment 9 of 79
  • Lincoln of Victoria Posted at 6:42 AM February 14, 2013
    Nothing fails like failure. Gillard and Swan are a pair of confirmed failures. They have set the date for their own departure, or rather the date for them to be booted out by an electorate sick of their every word. Attacking the Opposition makes them into the new Dr Nos,and empty extravagant promises can raise no hope, they have no hope. Rudd or no Rudd, when Labor cannot remove the pair weighing the Party Down, what hope is there for the once great Labor Party! The Rudd factor is merely a distraction, a distraction that the Gillard-Swan pair can't do without just to survive for another day.
    Comment 10 of 79
  • Fitza of Cairns Posted at 6:45 AM February 14, 2013
    If neither Gillard nor Swan will go prior to September 14th, then maybe we will have to rely on Rudd challenging JG - and according to the Ch 7 news this morning, that could be on the cards. Some wise words from Confucius....... For JG: "What you do not want done to yourself, do not do to others" For KR: "Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves".
    Comment 11 of 79
  • Andy in Townsville Posted at 7:09 AM February 14, 2013
    Great summation Niki in you usual enlightened way. But it does not matter what Labor does we will sack them in September for their lack of performance and gross incompetence. Or maybe we will get the chance earlier than that, I hope so.
    Comment 12 of 79
  • Lies on lies Posted at 7:27 AM February 14, 2013
    Is not repeatedly making false promises, in parliament, a sackable offence? "Will deliver surplus, will deliver surplus etc etc" but will not.
    Comment 13 of 79
  • annie of Hunter NSW Posted at 7:29 AM February 14, 2013
    Only about 220 days to go before this govt. can be put out of its misery Nikki. I must congratulate Windsor and Oakeshott on their pick of stable Govt. Going with Labor, their choice, has put this country thru hell, borders open to anyone with a boat, and a huge bill to pay for them, a carbon tax that is now python like starting to strangle companies, causing job loss, A Treasurer who apparently could not run a bath, and a PM who obviously thinks you run a country like a union, trample over any other persons opinion, eg: her Cabinet, or back benchers, Oh,and we must not forget the MP's being investigated by police, that apears to be normal too. This is all very entertaining, it is also very serious, leaving the incoming Govt. with a enormous task, of getting the country back on track again. Meanwhile, our hero's above ride off into the sunset with very substantial pensions and perks, and that includes Windsor and Oakeshott. Their legacy of infamy they will leave behind, but somehow I doubt if any give a ratz.
    Comment 14 of 79
  • Ken of Melbourne Posted at 7:37 AM February 14, 2013
    Swan has never been particularly competent, even on the opposition benches. That so much trust was placed in him by Gillard is another reminder of her appalling judgment. Like the ghost of Christmas' past, Rudd just keeps reappearing and there is nothing Gillard or Swan can do about it. Perhaps Sunday September the 15th may bring some relief!
    Comment 15 of 79
  • GerardB of Roseville NSW Posted at 7:43 AM February 14, 2013
    Australia will be paying for the conduct of Wayne Swan, Julia Gillard and Labor for a long time. I hope that we never see their like again.
    Comment 16 of 79
  • Logical of Canberra Posted at 7:51 AM February 14, 2013
    Like all the rest of them, he is just there for the money and perks. It has never occurred to him he might be held responsible for his actions.
    Comment 17 of 79
  • Thucydides Posted at 7:54 AM February 14, 2013
    As an ex-Costello staffer it is not surprising to see you wallow in an obviously flawed mining tax. But little to show? What a joke. Look at the key economic indicators, inflation, growth, interest rates, unemployment. Yesterday the overall consumer confidence index rose, the Commonwealth Bank made a super half-yearly profit, and the S&P/ASX 200 Index crashed through the 5000 point barrier. As you said in your book So Greek,"When it comes to scheming, lying, plain old hypocrisy and dishonesty, journalists-apart from a few notable exceptions-win hands down over politicians."
    Comment 18 of 79
  • anthony of Brisbane Posted at 7:59 AM February 14, 2013
    God himself(no,not you Kevin) cant save Labor from total annihilation. Labor will enter the wilderness for a generation. I don't know why so many journo's & commentators even pretend we have a competition.
    Comment 19 of 79
  • BigT of Gold Coast Posted at 8:02 AM February 14, 2013
    I saw the interview where a journalist asked him why his electorate brochure lied about having already achieving a surplus. he blustered and tried to bluff his way through the question, but the journo asked the question another couple of times and suggested that he was not playing honestly. He couldn't answer and ended up with a petulant look on his mug. He finally packed up and left the press statement. He could not answer successful as to why he has lied in writing
    Comment 20 of 79
  • Allen of Kurrajong Hills Posted at 8:06 AM February 14, 2013
    If the "Next few batches of Polls" Don't show a much further decline in the support for Labour, then there is something seriously wrong in the judgment of the Australian people!
    Comment 21 of 79
  • Yvonne of Hobart Posted at 8:12 AM February 14, 2013
    He will go - at the next election. Let's hope we manage to hold on to our super before that day.
    Comment 22 of 79
  • Peter of Caloundra Posted at 8:15 AM February 14, 2013
    Savvas should have known by now that Rudd did not place that photo of the Pope, several times Sky commentators have said that camera crew installed the photo behind Rudd. An example of Savvas bias.
    Comment 23 of 79
  • not so savvy of Melbourne Posted at 8:15 AM February 14, 2013
    For those coming late to the musings of Niki Savva, she keeps forgetting to do the right thing in the interests of informed debate and add after her name, former Howard staffer and Press Secretary for Peter Costello. Now doesn't that put her conspiratorial, unsubstantiated twaddle in perspective? Apart from reiterating what everyone else is saying about the mining tax debacle, the remainder of her column is idle gossip - a mate of a mate who knows the janitor who works in the building where the Minister once had a meeting said.... Press Secretary - the polite way to refer to a spin doctor.
    Comment 24 of 79
  • Helen of Sydney Posted at 8:26 AM February 14, 2013
    To listen to Ms Gillard as PM and Mr Swan as Treasurer in Parliament during Question Time is the biggest joke out. I watch daily in the hope one of them may answer a question or give me some honest answer. They are a disastrous team and I agree with Niki Savva's comments 100%.
    Comment 25 of 79
  • Heidi of Perth Posted at 8:37 AM February 14, 2013
    Brilliant summing up of a disgraceful situation as usual.
    Comment 26 of 79
  • Papertiger of Mt Martha Posted at 8:41 AM February 14, 2013
    What is astonishing about the MRRT is that this government has not had a fall back position if prices on resources fell. Where is plan B treasurer? Spending before you have the money is nuts and crazy politics. Politics has always been behind unfunded promises. There is still this pervasive view that he will deliver a modest deficit and blame the volatility of price and the unpredictability of the market and fund the big ticket items. The only way to fund it its pretty obvious. Tax Super amongst the mix. They came in on Rudds fiscal assault on mining how ironic that it has turned against them and made them look like financial amateurs.
    Comment 27 of 79
  • Nick of Canberra Posted at 8:43 AM February 14, 2013
    Yet another excellent article. Thank you.Having read the article and then listened to an interview between Fran Kelly and the Treasurer on RN Breakfast, Swan behaved exactly as he does in parliamentary Question Time. He failed to provide direct answers to any question posed by Fran starting his responses by saying 'let me just make a couple of points...'. He then goes into a long rambling diatribe about unemployment, strong economy, strong dollar etc.etc and on almost every occasion it becane more apparent that he and the truth are complete strangers. A fine example of this was given in your article where it is stated that Swan wrote to his constituents that he had delivered a (budget) surplus when he knew he hadn't..He obviously seems to live within his own little cocoon and will not tolerate criticism from any quarter. The net result is that the nation is a whole lot poorer for his mismanagement.
    Comment 28 of 79
  • Paratus of Cairns Qld Posted at 8:52 AM February 14, 2013
    Niki, Blind Freddy could see, long ago, that Mr Swan was not the brightest tool in the ALP shed. The only surprising thing is that it has taken so long for public recognition of his incompetence. He an Gillard are the two main actors in this farce. I am staggered that about one third of my fellow countrymen and women still intend to vote Labor in September. Can you believe that?
    Comment 29 of 79
  • Ray Posted at 8:58 AM February 14, 2013
    The upshot is that unless the opposition makes a serious stuff-up in its costings, it will be difficult for Swan to run attacks on...... Wrong,wrong,wrong,The opposition will be attacked by Swan with lies and figures plucked out the cloud that he cannot and will not have to verify as the left media will jump on his every word and without a shred of proof will back his lies.Abbot and all coalition members need to have at their disposal, and embedded in their minds , all the correct figures so that they can kill the lies and baited questions from the left media.
    Comment 30 of 79
  • Maggie Qld Posted at 9:02 AM February 14, 2013
    Nikki loads of commonsense but your comments will sail right over the Gillard Government's head. It is darned frustrating to see failure piled on failure with no end in sight. I really do not believe Gillard can last until September and I cannot see one with her ego and attitudes sitting on the back bench and Oh what a field day the Coalition would have if Rudd was reappointed (God help us).
    Comment 31 of 79
  • Jenfmnanaglen Posted at 9:04 AM February 14, 2013
    Nikki, if Swan were a CEO (not a hope in hell) he would have been thrown out by the shareholders, if not the Board of Directors! Miners are not scared of this incompetent joke of a Fed govt as they shift their focus to countries that have a more favourable tax system and lower labour costs. This current Fed Treasury should stop using the abacus for its number crunching. Treasury has done its fair share of stuffing up. Room for a few redundancies? As for Rudd.....always loved doing 'churchie' photo ops but fair dinkum...a photo with the Pope in it! As least the Holy Father knows when its time to leave.
    Comment 32 of 79
  • Pat. Williams Posted at 9:06 AM February 14, 2013
    Excellent article, Niki. As you state, Gillard will not sack Swan, if only because she would also have to go. And we all know Gillard would never put her V.I.P. status under threat. One vote grabbing issue this government won't be able to dwell on is the Opposition's costings - that would open an huge can of worms. The combined arrogance of Gillard and Swan is astounding. Both act like spoilt children. Just wish they would throw out their toys and go home. Even with the carbon tax compensation, we are told households are being overcompensated. If that were to be true, that's just one more miscalculation. If Swan's maths are so poor, how come he's the treasurer? Any other organization would long since have sacked him.
    Comment 33 of 79
  • John Nicol of Forest Lake 4078 Posted at 9:09 AM February 14, 2013
    Nicki, You always writer so clearly and provide details like no one else, into the murky depths of this political nightmare we all have to live with until September. I am also enjoying your book - So Greek. Keep the opinion pieces coming. Best wishes, John Nicol
    Comment 34 of 79
  • MEB of Sydney Posted at 9:20 AM February 14, 2013
    Brilliant piece Nikki, and time someone wrote it about the myth that is Swan. Just remember though that the great Labor white knight Rudd was, with Swan, the main architect of many of his stuff ups. He is more like Wayne than many people remember.
    Comment 35 of 79
  • philj of Perth Posted at 9:23 AM February 14, 2013
    Gee Niki, you will have him clawing the ceiling again with this very factual article. One of the problems with the Gillard / Swan relationship is that it is always the fault of someone else. Thankfully they seem doomed.
    Comment 36 of 79
  • Mahala of Tin Can Bay Q Posted at 9:31 AM February 14, 2013
    Your description is perfect in every way Ms Savva. Add in the shrill and hysterical rhetoric from Labor MPs like Mr Bradbury to defend, defend at all costs, and you have an undefendable farce. Meanwhile, us mere voters watch on in horror. Fix the mess Labor, or 'us voters' will fix it for you come September in numbers that will horrify Labor for many years to come. Phone booth comes to mind.
    Comment 37 of 79
  • Three Cheers Posted at 9:32 AM February 14, 2013
    Spot on Niki! And ditto for Gillard and Abbott, both equally disliked by the public. Time to get rid of the brats and bullies and let the moderate adults take over.
    Comment 38 of 79
  • Phil of Castle Hill Posted at 9:36 AM February 14, 2013
    Agreed Niki, but I think that the time for Swan to go has definitely passed. Now that Gillard has announced the date for the election, and named her team to go to the polls with, it would be (another) disaster for Swan to go now. Also, I can't see that anyone on Gillard's front bench has the ability or presence to pick up the Treasurer's position anyway - maybe that's another reason why he hasn't been replaced. Labor needs some talent - badly.
    Comment 39 of 79
  • NevilleW Posted at 9:36 AM February 14, 2013
    I am afraid Niki, we all have to wait till Sep 14th before this clinging government gives way to the voter. Till then the incompetence will continue. It will be generations before anyone votes for an "independent" again, but it will happen again, that is the crux of the problem. The two-party system has us trapped, and that is just the way they like it. Get preselected and your financial future is assured, all you need is the ability to look down the lens of a camera and lie your arse off, and you are in.
    Comment 40 of 79
  • David of NSW Posted at 9:37 AM February 14, 2013
    Tony Abbott, in opposition, has been criticised by some commentators for being careful about interviews - understandably so in view of the misrepresentation and character assassinations he suffers at the hands of some journalists. However, these same journalist do not expect from Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer Wayne Swan the accountability that they prescribe for Abbott. Why do they wrap Swan up in cotton wool? We know the answer. He is one of the incompetents who prop up this government.
    Comment 41 of 79
  • Bushkid of Calliope, Qld. Posted at 9:38 AM February 14, 2013
    "Reinstating Kevin Rudd would not only remove the problem of Gillard, it would remove Swan. Rudd could make Greg Combet treasurer. Or Bill Shorten or Chris Bowen. Anybody but Swan." That last is the most frightening sentence in this entire article. We already know how inept Swann is, but the idea that any one of that trio, or any one on the government benches for that matter, could or would do better would be laughable if it were not so ludicrous. We simply cannot afford to have nay of this rabble in government and in control of the budget or our economic future a minute longer.
    Comment 42 of 79
  • Robert Webb Posted at 9:38 AM February 14, 2013
    I have zero respect for Swan or Gillard but then the truth is that I am unable to name a minister in this government that still has my respect. Its TV that is the problem. No more exposure they get, the less impressed you become. Kate Lundy's we will get you threat to alleged but unproven drug cheats being hung out to dry without charges is a case in point. I no longer have even a molecule of confidence that this government knows what it is doing. What I am confident of is that they will sacrifice economic principle and the national good if it will improve their electoral chances. What will feature in the election campaign now running is their use of the wedge at every opportunity regardless of justice equity or fairness.
    Comment 43 of 79
  • Mandy Macmillan of South Mission Beach Qld Posted at 9:55 AM February 14, 2013
    "Little to show but he won't go" says the headline but the really galling thing is that Swan will have lots to show - in terms of his taxpayer funded entitlements - when he finally departs, which in all probability will be in September. As a politician he is divisive, as a Treasurer he is a dud. His shameful legacy to us will be billions of dollars of debt for years to come.
    Comment 44 of 79
  • Terry Kidd of Perth Posted at 9:59 AM February 14, 2013
    Good summation Nikki. Yes, Swan has provided very ample evidence of his incompetence and any sensible leader displaying sound political judgement would have sacked him at least 12 months ago. However, we also know that Gillard does not possess sound political judgement. I am still of the opinion that Gillard will be forced into a leadership vote that she will initiate at very short notice.
    Comment 45 of 79
  • Bill of Brisbane Posted at 10:07 AM February 14, 2013
    He doesn't need to resign Nikki, we will vote him out soon enough, along with,God willing, his old best friend KRudd
    Comment 46 of 79
  • PeterMax of Adelaide Posted at 10:44 AM February 14, 2013
    Wayne Swan is a prime example of why all, or most of Gillard Labor are not trusted. Gillard Labor will not be believed no matter what denigrating claims they make about Coalition costings.
    Comment 47 of 79
  • Bernard Chung Posted at 10:47 AM February 14, 2013
    It was plain to see he was out of his depth from when the GFC hit. Wayne Swan looked like the proverbial deer frozen in the head lights. Every time he opens his mouth to speak I cringe. He could not even balance the books in his household. Any sound business person knows you don't spend money you haven't got (e.g. Allocating funds for mining tax before getting it)
    Comment 48 of 79
  • paulinadelaide Posted at 10:48 AM February 14, 2013
    2 serious policy failures? What about the rest. True success of a Treasurer should really be how many times they say no. The GFC - billions spent and nothing to show for it except a few overpriced school buildings and some insulation. A political fix not an economic one. The NBN, countless billions, so far nothing much to show for it and no productivity evaluation. Health & education - policies hyped on Billions spent rather than outcomes and that's before Gonski. Childcare - a 40% increase in funding despite no increase in use. And where government funding on social policy runs out, socialise business instead - SGC super, Discrimination law, Industrial relations law, OH&S, Bullying, Carbon Tax, personal care leave, etc etc. The treasurer of Australia has sent business, particularly smaller ones, a strong message - don't invest, don't employ, don't expand, don't innovate - curl up in a ball and hope he leaves before you go broke! And of course I forget the NDIS. Forget $15B or whatever - its a blank cheque. At least that's something our treasurer is good a doing.
    Comment 49 of 79
  • BrisBen of Spring Hill Posted at 10:49 AM February 14, 2013
    Denis Brown of Brisbane @ 5:24am; not once did Nikki mention Abbott, and Swan's "getting on with the job" is burying the country. You really are blind and delusional. Wake up. The facts speak for themselves, regardless of preferred political party.
    Comment 50 of 79
  • John of Northlakes of Queensland Posted at 11:09 AM February 14, 2013
    I have met Wayne Swann. He is actually quite a nice fellow & he means well. However he is out of his depth as Treasurer. I have corresponded with Kevin Rudd & after initially being impressed by his interllect I am now convinced that his bizzare need for attention & adulation combined with chaotic work methods & divisive persona precludes him from public leadership. Ms Gillard seems to mean well & I agree with many of her principles but she has lost trust in the community which leaves her unable to lead the nation. Unfortunately this leaves us currently with Mr Abbott! What a sad indictment of our politics that we are left with Hobsons choice. As much as I would like to vote for the Coalition I simply cannot bring myself to vote for Mr Abbott as Prime Minister. He has no redeeming qualities whatsoever. What is a voter to do? Isn't there someone of principle in the Liberal Party who can step up & give me a reason to vote for a change of government that the country so desperately needs.
    Comment 51 of 79
  • Pat. Williams Posted at 11:32 AM February 14, 2013
    The Labor faithful will never change, dispite any evidence offered. Those who keep heralding our supposed good management for not succumbing to the GFC never mention the huge surplus this government inherited. First thing it did was spend it all with much more besides. Never mention the huge deficit, growing daily, we now have. Never mention the broken promises. Never mention that neither the education reforms or the NDIS are funded. Get real! Somehow funds have to be found. My guess is that Australia will be put further into deficit. Unless there's a miracle, this government will be out of office on September 15th. That being so, it won't really matter to Gillard, Swan et al whether the deficit is $100 billion or $100,000 billion - won't be their problem. So, expect more vote begging freebies, more spin, more lies, more deceit. But the faithful will still be conned and happily accept "free" money. Oh to be so away with the fairies.
    Comment 52 of 79
  • Ian Keens of Perth Posted at 11:33 AM February 14, 2013
    Depreciation offsets are part of every oil and gas project and I assume every minerals project. This does not just apply to Australia, it is pretty much universal. You would have no investments in these projects otherwise. Any self respecting economist should know this. It's 101 stuff.
    Comment 53 of 79
  • It's the Jobs stupid of Perth Posted at 11:47 AM February 14, 2013
    Jesus Salvatore Digiovanni(#8)..... You are really clueless. If being a successfuly treasurer is based on how low interest rates are then innumerable treasurers or finance ministers around the world, particularly in Europe and again in the US are far more successful with interest rates azt zero or close to it. Australia didn't have to waste hundreds of billions of dollars during the GFC to stop a recession, it did not have the same structural ecomomic problems as other countries and probably would have weathered the storm without any intervention. Work Choices was the best thing for this country in that it created an environment that made businesses WANT to employ people, not make it so risky that they are growth averse and won't risk taking on new employees in a rigid, over-legislated and union controlled IR environment.
    Comment 54 of 79
  • Steve of Shepparton Posted at 11:54 AM February 14, 2013
    Sorry Nikki I agree with Hockey. He needs to stay. He is the coalition’s second best asset after Julia. I want to see the realisation of what they have done to Labor and to the country on their faces come election night.
    Comment 55 of 79
  • Lukemac of Lara Posted at 12:05 PM February 14, 2013
    3.2% swing and hes gone for good. Given the current state of things, he might be a little worried I think!
    Comment 56 of 79
  • Fiona Ann Murray of Australia Posted at 12:10 PM February 14, 2013
    41 Journalists are from the Left and only 14 from the Conservative side of politics. Little wonder Wayne Swan continues to be feted as the best thing since sliced bread. The people, however, know the truth, and will despatch Swan in no uncertain terms on September 14. I can't wait to see the look on his face on Election Night.
    Comment 57 of 79
  • Chris Posted at 12:16 PM February 14, 2013
    Resignation isn't good enough. He should sack himself .... to the intent that we the taxpayers will not have to pay him $8-$10 million or more over the rest of his life. Think about it Dear Reader - Federal, State and Territory governments - same story. It doesn't seem right, but on the other hand that amount per labor politician is cheap money to get rid of the lot of them so they cannot damage the taxpayer any further.
    Comment 58 of 79
  • John of Batemans Bay NSW Posted at 12:18 PM February 14, 2013
    It is a shame that Economics is not made a mandatory subject which must be passed before you can gain your higher school certificate or your entry to university. A few of the comments made above indicate the writers have little knowledge of the effects that some of their suggestions would have.RE: Denis Brown of Brisbane, Yes you could tax the miners but at some point what happens when the miners pack up and leave because compared to the rest of the world our taxes on that industry become too high? Who employes the workers and others in associated industries who will loose their jobs? RE Salvatore Digiovanni, The GST was not only about putting a tax on consumption but its introduction was used to have a closer look at the Income Tax system relative to business and ensured that there was greater accuracy in returns being lodged. Note labor govt has left well alone(not second rate)introduced by Costello and Howard a liberal conservative government. Work Choices I agree did have some overkill in it but I do not recall hundereds loosing their jobs because of it. What we have now is no incentive to employ anyone. There is no incentive in this economy to rush into business.
    Comment 59 of 79
  • Ken of Melbourne Posted at 12:22 PM February 14, 2013
    Golly 'Not so Savvy of Melbourne' my guess is that you would much prefer the "non-bias' of David Marr or one of the numerous other left wing journalists at Fairfax and the ABC. My guess is that it runs about three to one in your favor! Niki holds her own well on 'Insiders' but then conservatives have to be three times as good to balance the equation!
    Comment 60 of 79
  • Observer Posted at 12:25 PM February 14, 2013
    The award 'greatest treasurer' was in fact 'treasurer of the greatest economy'. Swan had nothing at all to do with Australia's miracle economy, other than to prevent it from being even stronger. Swan never seems to have transformed from politician to administrator. Like Gillard, Rudd and most of the Labor ministers, the main game is politics, not managing their portfolios. It's one stunt or trick after another, but precious little when it comes to the 'hard yards' of administration. Perhaps that's because none of the ministers have ever run a business, a state, or even managed employees? Cosy jobs in unions, law firms and as political hacks are no basis for the serious responsibilities of running a government. Swan has always been a failure and that's all he will be. The fact that Labor thought there was something more to Swan, sufficient to make him treasurer, indicates that failure is a common trait in Labor.
    Comment 61 of 79
  • Don Osborne of Victoria Posted at 12:27 PM February 14, 2013
    Excellent article, Nikki - and spot on. Your detractors pointing to record low interest rates on this page do not realise that is an indicator of a struggling economy - not the opposite
    Comment 62 of 79
  • Fitza of Cairns Posted at 12:35 PM February 14, 2013
    To 'Thucydides' at 0754 hours. "The ASX200 crashed through the 5000 point barrier". Strewth! The ASX 200 peaked at 6800 points back in 2007 - or five and half YEARS ago! i.e. it is still 35 per cent below it's peak. Meanwhile, the DJIA has already regained it's losses from 2007. Meanwhile, Aussie interest rates are high by current global rates. Hence, one reason for our high AUssie dollar - the 'carry trade' borrows overseas and invests here. Unemployment? Here in Cairns, the unemployment rate is well over 8 per cent. Reason? See high Aussie dollar comment. Real Estate prices in Cairns continue to drop. In my Unit block this week, an investor has listed a Unit for sale at 15 per cent below what I paid in late 2010 - and I thought I had picked the bottom of the market! So, reality check - booming economy it ain't. Not from where I am sat. By the way, didn't Barrie Cassidy ('The Insiders')work for a former ALP Govt?
    Comment 63 of 79
  • Nick of Canberra Posted at 12:38 PM February 14, 2013
    Dennis Brown of Brisbane @5.24 a.m and Salvatore Digiovanni @6.11 a.m should be pitied for their extraordinary intellectual failings. With a national debt of over $150 billion, a distinct lie to his electorate about the budget surplus,and a disastrous mess over the MRRT, to call Swan an outstanding Treasurer displays an overwhelming ignorance of the nation's economics.
    Comment 64 of 79
  • Allan of Melbourne Posted at 12:45 PM February 14, 2013
    How about a Treasurer that has even just a basic understanding of economics and finance rather than an arts graduate who would make a good used-car salesman.
    Comment 65 of 79
  • Jim of Wallacia Posted at 12:48 PM February 14, 2013
    What does one say, Brilliant summary! The scariest thing though is the presumption that Combet, Bowen or Shorten have the necessities to be a treasurer. What qualifications do they expose! I would say nothing. This is the whole problem with Labor. The new breeds, the new faceless men, the new rising stars, the new shakers and movers, like Bradbury and Howes await their anointment. I cannot understand how this once great party got to this level, or can survive without radical ground up surgery.
    Comment 66 of 79
  • The Confederate Posted at 12:49 PM February 14, 2013
    @Salvatore Digiovanni you also forget to mention the Costello paid off Labor's 96 billion debt that was left to the Libs.
    Comment 67 of 79
  • Brair Rabbit Posted at 12:57 PM February 14, 2013
    Nothing will save Gillard and Swan - absolutely nothing and nothing will save the ALP Government absolutely nothing including Rudd who simply started the whole sorry scenario with gross overstimulation via wasteful expenditure and by abandoning a sound an effective border protection policy. Returning to Rudd would be like rewinding a very bad movie. Abbott has given the Coalition stability and resilience and he would do the same for the nation as Prime Minister. He has shown his mettle in a range of roles and it's time for the nation to give him a go. We need a majority government and I do not believe for one moment that the electorate would now even contemplate giving the ALP majority status. The Labor party must be taught a lesson so that what is left of them are the ones we can trust and have the ethical essence to rebuild the ALP from the ground up to create a worthwhile party genuinely committed to the public interest. The sooner the lesson is learnt the better. September is too far away. The independents should swallow their pride and their egos and acknowledge they made a huge mistake. Oakeshott now says he was "duped". No he duped his constituents as did Windsor.
    Comment 68 of 79
  • Henry Gray of Leanyer NT Posted at 1:13 PM February 14, 2013
    Mr Swan, I don't like or dislike you as a person and have no right to judge in these terms because I have never met you. However, in terms of your occupation as our Federal Treasurer I have no respect for the job you do more appreciation for your historical fulfilment of your role. please study 360 degree vision and try hard to look beyond tomorrow. Also, please be informed by history when it comes to matters of macro-financial management. Finally, please don't espouse the benefits of debt and borrowing but learn the importance of the country paying its way.
    Comment 69 of 79
  • Brair Rabbit Posted at 1:34 PM February 14, 2013
    No wonder Senator Conroy at Senate Estimates this week could not give an unconditional commitment that the election would be held on September 14. First not even the PM could do that given that she has not seemingly yet advised the GG regarding the matter notwithstanding that the PM has impertinently and confusingly announced the date. Second, the PM may not be in a position in August to give any advice to the GG which is a double impertinence to the GG and the electorate. it seems I believe that the PM does not have much regard for due process either now, the future or in the past. To borrow a phrase it's time for Gillard,Swan and their band of followers to depart the scene without any encore.
    Comment 70 of 79
  • Wundering of Brisneyland Posted at 1:40 PM February 14, 2013
    Aaah, Dennis Brown and Salvatore Digiovanni, thank you for chiming in from the rusted on Left. It's wonderful to know that there remains at least one Labor voter in each state. Thank you for providing the democratic balance!
    Comment 71 of 79
  • Keith Smith Posted at 1:41 PM February 14, 2013
    You think you have problems. I live in the electorate of "Lilley" and Mr Swan is my Federal Member. I recently wrote to him seeking an apology for a taxpayer funded flyer he sent to constituents in which he claimed "the budget had been brought back to surplus in time as promised". Of course he did not respond. Talking around local clubs strongly suggest that Mr Swann will not only lose his seat at the election he will be demolished along with much of labor on a national scale of record proportions. I cannot happen soon enough for most of us.
    Comment 72 of 79
  • rodney allsworth of morayfield Posted at 2:03 PM February 14, 2013
    now I understand why the presenter of a certain ABC Sunday program doesn't like you.you go girl, great article, and because someone doesn't like you doesn't mean your wrong, it just means they have a limited ability to perceive that they don't quite have a full grasp on an issue. rod qld
    Comment 73 of 79
  • Nick of canberra Posted at 2:34 PM February 14, 2013
    Gillard and Swan can rabbit on, as they do, as much as they like about taxes, tax thresholds, superannuation, the strength of the economy etc etc because they just will not be believed. Despite what that blow-in Mcternan tries to construct for them, they destroyed any element of trust they possessed by lieing about the carbon tax.
    Comment 74 of 79
  • Charles Johnson of Toowoomba Posted at 2:51 PM February 14, 2013
    Perhaps Dennis Brown and Salvatore should look a little deeper than the numbers they use as "signs" that the economy is somehow in miraculous shape. January part-time jobs up 20,200, permanent positions DOWN 9,800. December permanent positions DOWN 13,900. November permanent positions DOWN 4,200. Number of job ads is down 18.4% on January 2012. Manufacturing sector has contracted for 11 months in a row. Services sector has contracted for 12 months in a row. This is not a sign of a treasurer doing a wonderful job. IT IS A DISASTER! Luckily, most people see and understand this.
    Comment 75 of 79
  • D.V.M. of Cooran Posted at 3:06 PM February 14, 2013
    I doubt that this will go to print, but just side-stepping slightly, I wonder all the time why the polls show that 30 to 35% of voters are on Labors side, when you read these bloggs, Out of 47 comments only two, maybe three are on Labors side, and this is across the board on all articles. I can only conclude that the polls are taken in the Labor Caucus rooms, no other explanation???
    Comment 76 of 79
  • Chris of Melbourne Posted at 3:26 PM February 14, 2013
    Comment 24, I did not know that Nikki was a former Howard staffer but it makes not one Iota of difference - and it does not discredit this article. In my view, Swan has always presented as incompetent - he has ridden on the excellent fiscal management of Peter Costello, and has managed to not only NOT produce a budget surplus, he has produced a staggering deficit, and we probably won't even see the truth of these figures until the Liberals start the enormous challenge of getting Australia back into shape.
    Comment 77 of 79
  • Let's have real debate of Perth Posted at 4:28 PM February 14, 2013
    Salvatore Digiovanni and Denis Brown: While I recognise your right to your opinions, I think that it is a pity that as some of the few Labor supporters who do contribute their comments you are not able to put forward a reasonable analysis of anything. You take refuge in repeating the Labor mantra of how wonderful they are, without putting any intelligent thought or ideas forward.
    Comment 78 of 79
  • AMF of St kilda Posted at 4:45 PM February 14, 2013
    A good account of the situation Nikki. Your review is journalstic and fair. Keep it up.
    Comment 79 of 79


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