Karl's Book, Courage and Consequence available at Amazon.com, Barnes & Nobles, and Books-a-Million
Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the map's release date (all polls earlier than that will drop off). For example, the map published on October 15 does not include any poll earlier than October 1, except if the latest poll in a state was conducted before that date (for example, the most recent poll in Vermont was taken on August 31). States within a three-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as toss-ups; states between a five-to-eight-point lead for the Republican or Democratic candidate are classified as "lean" for that candidate; states outside the eight-point lead are allocated to the respective party. Please note: for some states, the most recent polls available at this time are up to one year old and other states with no polling yet available have been classified Republican or Democrat based on their 2008 results.
Election 2012: State of the Race
Mitt Romney has the momentum in the final days of the campaign, with two states moving in his direction in the latest Electoral College map. Tennessee moved from "lean" to "safe" Romney, while Michigan moved from "lean" Obama to "toss up." Mr. Romney now has 180 "safe" Electoral College votes - only four behind Barack Obama's total of 184. There are two states (26 EC votes) that "lean" Romney, and three (37 EC votes) that "lean" Obama. Nine states (111 EC votes) are "toss ups." Stay tuned for Karl's Election Day predictions in next Monday's final map.
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